IPL 4:How many wins needed for Play-off

Fans of teams in the lower half of points table must be really curious to know how many points do you need to go to the final 4 /qualifiers / Play-offs or previously semi-finals.

It’s good to have a look at the past and how it happened in last three IPL seasons.

IPL 1: Rajasthan Royals (11 wins) ; Kings XI Punjab (10 wins); Chennai Super Kings (8 wins); Delhi (7 wins, 1 draw)

IPL 2: Delhi (10 wins); Chennai Super kings (8 wins, 1 draw) , Royal Challengers (8 wins) , Deccan Chargers(7 wins)

IPL 3:  Mumbai Indians (10 wins); Deccan Chargers (8 wins); Chennai Super Kings (7 wins); Royals Challengers (7 wins)

Except the first season we saw both 2nd and 3rd seasons having 1 and 2 teams respectively with 7 wins and 14 points go the play-offs.

Now taking the present IPL 4 scenario: Every team is playing same number of games as they did in IPL 1,2 and 3. But you might ponder as more number of matches are being played in total. Will it make a difference to the points table scenario from last seasons ? No it wont as there as there are 10 teams to share these points contrary to 8 teams in previous seasons.

So the conclusion is core scenario of team with “7 wins and 14 points” making it to the finals remains with same possibility. Kings XI has the best chance in out of teams bottom 5 of making it to the Play-offs. Not just because they have 7 games left, but also as their team is filled with match winners and is lead by Gilly who has face further pressure cooker situations. On the other extreme even Pune can make it finals the last 4 if everything falls in place for them, off course Deccan and Delhi have a fair chance too. But off course lesser chance exists for Pune to go to the last 4.

Before looking at what these teams should do reach the last 4; Let us look at who each of IPL 4 teams of them are yet to play against

Team	Points	Matches Left	Teams left to be played in IPL 4
MI	14	5	DD,KXIP,DC,RR,KKR
KKR	12	5	KTK,CSK,RCB,PW, MI
CSK	12	5	KKR,RR,DD,KTK,RCB
RR	11	4	CSK,RCB,KTK,MI
RCB	9	5	KXIP, KTK,RR,KKR,KXIP,CSK
KTK	8	5	KKR,RCB,KXIP,RR, CSK
DC	6	5	DD, PW, MI, PW, KXIP
DD	6	5	DC,MI, CSK, KXIP,PW
KXIP	6	7	RCB,PW,MI,KTK,DD,RCB DC
PW	4	5	KXIP, DC, DC, KKR,DD

Its hard that KKR or CSK might choke and win only 1 game out of 5 games which they are left with.

The chance is based on fact that Rajasthan Royals and Royals Challengers Bangalore do have weak links and have been inconsistent. Moreover they have more than half of with their upcoming matches with teams below them. If  these teams start playing better due to the fear of elimination, then seemingly impossible becomes possible.

KXIP who have 2 matches with RCB hold the key for opening up the table. If they can win both of them, RCB will be left with 4 matches in KKR, CSK, KTK and RR. If KKR and CSK continue to be as consistent as they are or even if one of them loose and KTK shows desperation to win against RCB, then the points table will be open to KTK, KXIP and winner of today’s game in Deccan Chargers and Delhi Daredevils.

A consistent MI and CSK side have fair chances to win against RR now that they have winnings momentum. Remaining work has to be done by one of the teams KTK and RCB. Ultimately RR should be prevented from winning more than 1 game in 4 games left.

In such a possible scenario, there will be 2 teams left with 7 wins and 14 points and the team with better run-rate will go to the top 4. One of them will be Kings XI.

Though the possibility is very less but if Pune win all their matches left from now and all what I above said will happen, there will be 3 teams left with 7 wins like IPL 3 season points table and top team will go.

Not taking the previous performances of teams into concern, by all probability calculations 21 % chance that either KTK or KXIP or winner of today’s game in DC vs DD match can enter the top 4. That is not too less right ?

So Deccan, Delhi, Kochi (even Pune) and off course Kings XI fans pray that Gilchrist’s team will win against RCB tomorrow